Two scenarios for the Democrats

I’ve been thinking about the likely scenarios for the Democratic nomination battle. I’ve come up with two scenarios. The most likely is that Barak Obama does very well in the remaining battles in February, after sweeping the three states tonight, but then gets beat in both Ohio and Texas. In this scenario the Democratic establishment, seeking to avoid a long draw out battle, unifies behind Clinton and a deal is brokered that brings Obama in as her Vice-Presidential candidate.

The other scenario is that Obama’s wins in February create enough momentum that he’s able to take one or both of Ohio and Texas. If that happens the establishment is going to unite around him as the nominee. I think this is less likely simply because the demographics of Ohio and Texas are not very favorable for Obama given what’s happened already. If it does, though, you won’t be seeing Clinton picked to be Obama’s VP as she really doesn’t help his ticket.

Of course you know what happened last time I made a prediction, so take this with a grain of salt.