Prediction Time

So I’ve decided its prediction time for the 2008 election. I went over to the very helpful 270towin site, played around with the map and came up with what I think will be the final tally of the election this year.

If you check out the map you’ll see that swing states are in yellow. I predicted them as follows:

McCain wins: Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida

Obam wins: Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Virgina

This gives Obama a win with 286 electoral votes to McCain’s 252. You can see that I think big wins in the West, Midwest and South will help Obama win despite McCain taking the two most important swing states of the Bush victories, Florida and Ohio.

Do I think that Obama can do better? Yes, he can, he could conceivably win Ohio and Florida, although I think the former is more likely than the latter. He even has a shot at winning states like Georgia and South Carolina if enough Republicans stay home and new African American and young voters come out. If that happens this election will be a cake walk for Obama.

Later I’ll talk about why I think this is the way it’s going to work out, but I just wanted to get my dart up on the board first.